Long-Term Budget Analysis
- Report
The 2023 Long-Term Budget Outlook
The U.S. faces a challenging fiscal outlook in the coming years, according to CBO's projections. Measured as a percentage of GDP, large and sustained deficits lead to high and rising federal debt that exceeds any previously recorded level.
- Blog Post
CBO Issues Schedule for Release of Long-Term Budget Projections and Economic Update
CBO will release its long-term budget projections on June 28 and an update to its economic forecast for the next three years on July 31.
- Report
An Update to the Budget Outlook: 2023 to 2033
CBO’s updated projections show a federal budget deficit of $1.5 trillion for 2023. That estimate is subject to considerable uncertainty, though, in part because of a recent shortfall in tax revenues.
- Report
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033
In CBO’s projections, the federal deficit totals $1.4 trillion in 2023 and averages $2.0 trillion per year from 2024 to 2033. Real GDP growth comes to a halt in 2023 and then rebounds, averaging 2.4 percent from 2024 to 2027.
- Report
Long-Term Implications of the 2023 Future Years Defense Program
CBO analyzes the Department of Defense’s (DoD’s) plans for 2023 through 2027 as presented in the 2023 Future Years Defense Program and projects that DoD’s costs would increase by 9 percent from 2027 to 2037 without the effects of inflation.
- Report
CBO’s 2022 Long-Term Projections for Social Security
In CBO’s projections, spending on Social Security exceeds revenues to the program in 2022 and increases relative to GDP over the next 75 years, while revenues remain stable. If combined, the program’s trust funds would be exhausted in 2033.
- Report
An Analysis of the Navy’s Fiscal Year 2023 Shipbuilding Plan
Under the three alternatives in the Navy’s 2023 plan, total shipbuilding costs would average about $30 billion to $33 billion per year (in 2022 dollars) through 2052, CBO estimates, as the Navy built a fleet of 316 to 367 battle force ships.
- Presentation
An Overview of the 2022 Long-Term Budget Outlook
Presentation by Phillip Swagel, CBO’s Director, at an event hosted by the American Enterprise Institute.
- Presentation
An Overview of the 2022 Long-Term Budget Outlook
Presentation by Phillip Swagel, CBO’s Director, to the National Economists Club.
- Blog Post
Presentations on CBO’s Updated Long-Term Projections
CBO Director Phillip Swagel discusses his upcoming presentations on CBO’s latest long-term budget projections and demographic outlook.