Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
- Blog Post
U.S. Labor Market Has Recovered Slowly and Only Partially Since the End of the Recession
The slow recovery of the labor market largely reflects slow growth in the demand for goods and services. Output will grow more rapidly in the next few years than it has recently but recovery in the labor market will take some time.
- Blog Post
Economic Growth Is Projected to Be Solid in the Near Term, but Weakness in the Labor Market Will Probably Persist
CBO projects that the economy will grow more rapidly from 2014 to 2017—at an average rate of about 3 percent a year—than it did in 2013. But the unemployment rate will decline only gradually, finally dropping below 6.0 percent in 2017.
- Blog Post
Federal Revenues Are Projected to Increase Significantly Over the Next Two Years and Remain Steady as a Share of GDP Thereafter
Revenues are projected to continue rebounding from a post-recession low of 14.6 percent of GDP in 2009 and 2010—rising to 18.2 percent in 2015. They are projected to stay between 18.0 percent and 18.4 percent of GDP from 2016 through 2024.
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CBO’s Projections of Federal Spending Over the Next Decade
Under current law, outlays for Social Security, major health care programs, and net interest will grow over the coming decade, CBO estimates, while spending for other programs will decline relative to the size of the economy.
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Presentation to the National Association for Business Economics
How will the labor market evolve? How rapidly will potential and actual output grow? What will be the paths of inflation and interest rates? Director Doug Elmendorf addressed these and other questions about CBO's outlook for the economy.
- Blog Post
Federal Budget Deficits Are Projected to Decline Through 2015 but Rise Thereafter, Further Boosting Federal Debt
In recent years, debt held by the public has been significantly greater relative to GDP than at any time since just after World War II; under current law it will continue to be quite high by historical standards during the next decade.
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Presentation to the Economic Club of Minnesota
During his presentation, Director Doug Elmendorf emphasized that federal debt remains on an unsustainable path, and the composition of federal spending is changing dramatically from what it has been in the past.
- Blog Post
Frequently Asked Questions About CBO’s Estimates of the Labor Market Effects of the Affordable Care Act
CBO answers a few questions it has received about last week’s analysis of the labor market effects of the Affordable Care Act.
- Blog Post
Testimony Before the House Budget Committee on the Budget and Economic Outlook
Director Doug Elmendorf testified on CBO’s latest projections for the budget and economy. The video of that testimony is now available.
- Blog Post
Presentation with the Release of the Budget and Economic Outlook
In a briefing for the press this morning, Director Doug Elmendorf summarized CBO’s outlook for the budget and the economy. His remarks and accompanying slides are now available.