Economy
- Presentation
Estimating the Uncertainty of the Economic Forecast Using CBO’s Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model
This slide deck describes how CBO used a Bayesian vector autoregression model to assess the uncertainty of the economic forecast presented in CBO’s Current View of the Economy in 2023 and 2024 and the Budgetary Implications (November 2022).
- Presentation
Estimating the Uncertainty of the Economic Forecast Using CBO’s Expanded Markov-Switching Model
This slide deck describes how CBO used a Markov-switching model to assess the uncertainty of the economic forecast presented in CBO’s Current View of the Economy in 2023 and 2024 and the Budgetary Implications (November 2022).
- Report
The Accuracy of CBO’s Budget Projections for Fiscal Year 2022
In its July 2021 projections for fiscal year 2022, CBO underestimated revenues by 10 percent and outlays by 5 percent. CBO’s projection of the federal budget deficit for 2022 was more than the actual amount by 0.8 percent of GDP.
- Working Paper
The Welfare Effects of Debt: Crowding Out and Risk Shifting: Working Paper 2022-10
This paper extends a 2019 analysis by Olivier Blanchard by separating total estimated welfare effects of debt into crowding-out and risk-shifting components and estimates the effects of those components under alternative assumptions about technology and preferences.
- Report
Options for Reducing the Deficit, 2023 to 2032--Volume II: Smaller Reductions
CBO issues a volume that contains short descriptions of 59 policy options that would each reduce the federal budget deficit by less than $300 billion over the next 10 years.
- Report
CBO’s Current View of the Economy in 2023 and 2024 and the Budgetary Implications
CBO describes its current view of the economy over the next two years, compares that view with projections of other forecasters and with those that CBO made previously, and explains the implications for the federal budget.
- Report
Questions About CBO’s Current View of the Economy in 2023 and 2024 and the Implications for Households and the Federal Budget
CBO responds to questions about its current view of the economy over the next two years, how that compares with CBO's most recent projections and with those of the Federal Reserve, and the implications for households and the federal budget.
- Report
Automatic Stabilizers in the Federal Budget: 2022 to 2032
CBO projects the budgetary effects of automatic stabilizers—as well as the size of deficits without them—from 2022 to 2032 and provides historical estimates of the stabilizers’ effects since 1972.
- Report
CBO’s Use of the Income and Payroll Tax Offset in Its Budget Projections and Cost Estimates
CBO explains why it uses an income and payroll tax offset when estimating the budgetary effects of changes in indirect taxes, how the rate of the offset is set, and how it is applied in cost estimates and in baseline projections of revenues.