Economy
- Blog Post
CBO to Release Budget and Economic Outlook on February 7
CBO will release "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034" at 2 p.m. EST on February 7.
- Report
CBO’s Current View of the Economy and the Implications for the Federal Budget and for Workers
CBO responds to questions about the agency's current view of economic growth and interest rates and the implications of that view for the federal budget—as well as about the implications of inflation for workers.
- Report
CBO’s Current View of the Economy From 2023 to 2025
CBO provides details about the agency's most recent projections of the economy through 2025, which reflect economic developments as of December 5, 2023.
- Report
The Accuracy of CBO’s Budget Projections for Fiscal Year 2023
In its May 2022 projections for fiscal year 2023, CBO overestimated revenues by 11 percent and underestimated outlays by 9 percent. CBO’s projection of the federal deficit for 2023 was less than the actual amount by 3.9 percent of GDP.
- Working Paper
Conditional Forecasting With a Bayesian Vector Autoregression: Working Paper 2023-08
This paper describes how CBO uses a Bayesian vector autoregression method to generate alternative economic projections to the agency’s baseline.
- Presentation
How CBO Projects Corporate Income Tax Revenues
CBO describes how it projects corporate income tax revenues, focusing on how it maps economic projections of corporate profits to projections of the corporate income tax base.
- Presentation
CBO’s 2023 Long-Term Budget Projections
Presentation by Molly Dahl, CBO’s Long-Term Analysis Unit Chief, at the American Enterprise Institute’s panel discussion “Methodologies in Fiscal, Economic, and Health Spending Projections.”
- Presentation
The U.S. Economic Outlook
Presentation by Richard DeKaser, CBO’s Director of Macroeconomic Analysis, to Economic and Financial Counselors from the European Union.
- Blog Post
Latest Presentations
CBO Director Phillip Swagel discusses his most recent presentations on the U.S. economic and fiscal outlook.
- Report
CBO’s Projections of Federal Receipts and Expenditures in the National Income and Product Accounts: 2023 to 2033
This report presents CBO’s projections of revenues and outlays for the 2023–2033 period translated into the framework of the national income and product accounts and their categories of current receipts and expenditures.