Long-Term Economic Analysis
- Report
Revisions to CBO's Projection of Potential Output Since 2007
CBO examines the change in its projections of potential output for the year 2017: The estimate for that year that CBO prepared in February 2014 is about 7 percent lower than what it projected in January 2007.
- Working Paper
The Long-Run Effects of Federal Budget Deficits on National Saving and Private Domestic Investment: Working Paper 2014-02
This paper reviews CBO’s estimates of the effects of changes in federal deficits on national saving and private domestic investment.
- Working Paper
Fiscal Policy Effects in a Heterogeneous-Agent Overlapping-Generations Economy With an Aging Population: Working Paper 2013-07
This paper shows that considering an aging population is important in analyzing long-term policy changes that involve intergenerational transfers.
- Report
Testimony on The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook
Testimony before the Committee on the Budget, U.S. House of Representatives.
- Presentation
Press Briefing on The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook
Director Doug Elmendorf’s slides from his press briefing on The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook
- Report
The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook
Federal debt would grow to 100 percent of GDP by 2038 under current law, CBO projects, and would be on an upward path relative to the size of the economy—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.
- Working Paper
Total Factor Productivity Growth in Historical Perspective: Working Paper 2013-01
This paper reviews the broad contours of total factor productivity growth in the U.S. economy since 1870, highlighting the contribution of various technological innovations to the growth of different sectors of the economy.
- Blog Post
Breakfast with Reporters
I was pleased to speak early yesterday with a group of reporters who gather regularly at the invitation of the Christian Science Monitor. (Audio of the event is below.)
- Blog Post
CBO Testified on the Long-Term Budget Outlook
I testified this morning to the House Budget Committee about the Long-Term Budget Outlook that CBO released yesterday.
- Report
Testimony on the 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook
Chairman Ryan, Congressman Van Hollen, and Members of the Committee, thank you for inviting me to testify on the Congressi