Long-Term Economic Analysis
- Report
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025
Under current law, the deficit is projected to hold steady as a percentage of GDP through 2018, but rise thereafter, raising the already high federal debt. The rate of economic growth is projected to be solid in 2015 and the next few years.
- Blog Post
Communicating the Uncertainty of CBO's Estimates
At a conference organized by the Brookings Institution, Director Doug Elmendorf discussed the ways in which CBO quantifies uncertainty and why most of the agency’s estimates are presented as point values.
- Presentation
Communicating Uncertainty in Budgetary and Economic Estimates
Presentation by Doug Elmendorf, CBO Director, at the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution.
- Report
Characteristics of the Long-Term Unemployed in March 2007 and March 2014
This document compares the characteristics of the long-term unemployed in March 2007 and March 2014, supplementing and updating information provided in CBO’s Understanding and Responding to Persistently High Unemployment.
- Blog Post
The Uncertainty of Long-Term Budget Projections
Even if future tax and spending policies match what is specified in current law, budgetary outcomes will undoubtedly differ from CBO’s projections because of unexpected changes in the economy, demographics, and other factors.
- Blog Post
How Would Various Fiscal Policies Affect Federal Debt and the Economy?
If tax and spending policies differed significantly from those specified in current law, budgetary and economic outcomes could differ substantially as well.
- Report
Testimony on The 2014 Long-Term Budget Outlook
Testimony before the Committee on the Budget, U.S. House of Representatives.
- Presentation
The 2014 Long-Term Budget Outlook in 26 Slides
To get a quick overview of CBO's report The 2014 Long-Term Budget Outlook, check out this slide deck.
- Report
The 2014 Long-Term Budget Outlook
If current laws remained generally unchanged, federal debt held by the public would exceed 100 percent of GDP by 2039 and would be on an upward path relative to the size of the economy—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.
- Report
Budgetary and Economic Outcomes Under Paths for Federal Revenues and Noninterest Spending Specified by Chairman Ryan, April 2014
Under budgetary paths, but not particular policies, specified by Chairman Ryan, total deficits and debt would be smaller than under CBO’s extended baseline. Economic output would be lower in the next few years but higher thereafter.