Long-Term Economic Analysis
- Blog Post
Director’s Statement on The 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook
CBO Director Phill Swagel focuses on the long-term fiscal challenges facing the nation in his statement on CBO’s report The 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook.
- Report
The 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook
CBO presents its projections of what federal deficits, debt, spending, and revenues would be for the next 30 years if current laws governing taxes and spending generally did not change.
- Presentation
Macroeconomic Analysis at CBO
Presentation by Jeff Werling, CBO’s Assistant Director for Macroeconomic Analysis, at the Inforum Annual Conference at the University of Maryland, College Park.
- Presentation
The 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook in 23 Slides
This presentation summarizes the findings of CBO’s recent report The 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook. CBO has also provided a narrated presentation highlighting the key aspects of the agency’s extended baseline projections.
- Report
The Impact of Various Levels of Federal Debt on GNP and GNP per Capita
In a letter to Congressman Steve Womack, CBO provides additional information about its extended baseline projections and three alternative scenarios from The 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook. Specifically, CBO provides estimates of gross national product (GNP) and GNP per capita in all four cases.
- Presentation
How CBO Develops the Economic Projections Underlying Its Long-Term Budget Projections
On Monday, August 5, Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, and Jeffrey Werling, Assistant Director of CBO's Macroeconomic Analysis Division, will give the following presentation to the Social Security and Medicare Trustees Working Group.
- Blog Post
Director’s Statement on The 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook
In our extended baseline projections in The 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook, budget deficits drive federal debt held by the public to unprecedented levels.
- Report
The 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook
If current laws generally remained unchanged, large budget deficits would boost federal debt to unprecedented levels over the next 30 years, CBO projects.
- Blog Post
CBO to Release Long-Term Budget Projections on June 25
CBO will release The 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook at 10:00 a.m. on Tuesday, June 25. The report presents projections of what federal spending, revenues, deficits, and debt would be for the next 30 years if current laws generally did not change.
- Working Paper
The Effect of Government Debt on Interest Rates: Working Paper 2019-01
On average over the long term, each increase of 1 percentage point in federal debt as a percentage of GDP boosts interest rates by 2 to 3 basis points, CBO estimates.