Long-Term Economic Analysis
- Blog Post
Update on the Timing of CBO’s Analysis of the President’s Budget and Long-Term Projections
CBO will publish An Analysis of the Discretionary Spending Proposals in the President’s 2023 Budget on July 1. On July 27, CBO will publish The 2022 Long-Term Budget Outlook.
- Presentation
Quantifying the Uncertainty of Long-Term Economic Projections
Presentation by U. Devrim Demirel, CBO's Fiscal Policy Studies Unit Chief, and James Otterson at the 28th International Conference of The Society for Computational Economics.
- Working Paper
Quantifying the Uncertainty of Long-Term Economic Projections: Working Paper 2022-07
This paper presents a practical method for assessing the uncertainty of long-term economic projections.
- Working Paper
Economic Effects of Five Illustrative Single-Payer Health Care Systems: Working Paper 2022-02
CBO used a general-equilibrium, overlapping-generations model to analyze the economic and distributional implications of five illustrative single-payer health care systems. The working paper builds on previous CBO studies about single-payer health care systems.
- Presentation
Technical Information About How CBO Models the Effects of Climate Change on Output in Its Long-Term Economic Projections
CBO provides technical details about its methods for projecting the effect of climate change on the growth of real gross domestic product.
- Working Paper
CBO’s Model and Projections of U.S. International Investment Holdings and Income Flows: Working Paper 2021-10
Projections from CBO’s international financial forecasting model show the U.S. net international investment position rising modestly over the 10-year forecast period. Net international income is expected to rise as a share of GDP through 2023 before declining through 2031.
- Presentation
CBO’s Economic Forecast: Understanding Productivity Growth
Presentation by Robert Shackleton, an analyst in CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division, to the NABE Foundation’s 18th Annual Economic Measurement Seminar.
- Report
Effects of Physical Infrastructure Spending on the Economy and the Budget Under Two Illustrative Scenarios
CBO examined two illustrative scenarios that would boost federal funding for a mix of types of physical infrastructure by $500 billion over 10 years. The two scenarios differ in how the additional spending would be financed.
- Presentation
The Historical Decline in Real Interest Rates and Its Implications for CBO’s Projections
Presentation by Edward Gamber, an analyst in CBO's Macroeconomic Analysis Division, at the 23rd Federal Forecasters Conference.
- Presentation
CBO’s Policy Growth Model
The Policy Growth Model is one in a suite of models that CBO uses to analyze how economic growth and the federal budget interact.