Long-Term Economic Analysis
- Working Paper
The Economic Effects of Financing a Large and Permanent Increase in Government Spending: Working Paper 2021-03
This working paper analyzes the long-term economic effects of financing a large and permanent increase in government expenditures of 5 percent to 10 percent of gross domestic product annually.
- Report
The 2021 Long-Term Budget Outlook
CBO presents its projections of the federal budget for the next 30 years if current laws governing taxes and spending generally did not change. Growth in revenues would be outpaced by growth in spending, leading to rising deficits and debt.
- Working Paper
The Historical Decline in Real Interest Rates and Its Implications for CBO’s Projections: Working Paper 2020-09
CBO describes the methods that it uses to project interest rates.
- Report
Answers to Questions for the Record Following a Hearing Conducted by the Senate Committee on the Budget on CBO’s Budget Projections
The Senate Budget Committee convened a hearing at which Director Phillip Swagel testified about the 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook. This document provides CBO’s answers to questions submitted for the record by four Members of the Committee.
- Presentation
An Overview of The 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook
Presentation by Phillip Swagel, CBO’s Director, to the National Association of Home Builders’ Financial Institutions and Capital Markets Subcommittee
- Report
Testimony on CBO's 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook
CBO Director Phillip Swagel testifies before the Subcommittee on Fiscal Responsibility and Economic Growth of the Senate Finance Committee.
- Presentation
An Overview of The 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook
Presentation by Phillip Swagel, CBO’s Director, to the Prosperity Caucus
- Presentation
An Overview of The 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook
Presentation by Phillip Swagel, CBO’s Director, at the Economic Policy Summit 2020.
- Report
Testimony on CBO's 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook
CBO Director Phillip Swagel testifies before the Senate Budget Committee.
- Working Paper
CBO’s Projection of the Effect of Climate Change on U.S. Economic Output: Working Paper 2020-06
This paper describes how CBO constructed its projection of the effect of climate change on U.S. output, how the projected effect should be interpreted, limitations of the analysis, and the central climate-change scenario that CBO used.