Long-Term Economic Analysis
- Presentation
How CBO Develops the Economic Projections Underlying Its Long-Term Budget Projections
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, and Jeffrey Werling, Assistant Director of CBO's Macroeconomic Analysis Division, at the 2019 Social Security Technical Panel.
- Report
The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for Fiscal Policy
Expanding on its earlier long-term baseline projections, CBO shows how the federal budget and the economy would evolve under three scenarios in which laws would be changed to continue certain policies now in place, leading to higher debt.
- Blog Post
Director’s Statement on The 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook
Today CBO released The 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook. The report finds that if current laws generally remained unchanged, growing budget deficits would boost debt sharply in coming years.
- Report
The 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook
If current laws remain generally unchanged, CBO projects, federal budget deficits and debt would increase over the next 30 years—reaching the highest level of debt relative to GDP in the nation’s history by far.
- Blog Post
CBO to Release Long-Term Budget Outlook on June 26
CBO will release The 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook at 10:00 a.m. on Tuesday, June 26. The long-term projections—which span 30 years—are consistent with CBO’s latest 10-year budget and economic projections.
- Report
An Overview of CBOLT: The Congressional Budget Office Long-Term Model
CBOLT is the main analytical tool that CBO uses to make long-term projections of the economy and federal budget. Those projections help shed light on fiscal challenges that extend beyond CBO’s standard 10-year projection window.
- Working Paper
Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using CBO’s Forecasting Growth Model: Working Paper 2018-03
This paper documents CBO’s model of potential output. It describes the data, analytic methods, and modeling framework used to estimate historical values of the components of potential output and to project those values into the future.
- Presentation
The 2017 Budget and Economic Outlook
Presentation by Jeff Werling, Assistant Director, Macroeconomic Analysis Division, for the REALTOR® University Speaker Series.
- Report
The 2017 Long-Term Budget Outlook
If current laws remained generally unchanged, the United States would face steadily increasing federal budget deficits and debt over the next 30 years—reaching the highest level of debt relative to GDP ever experienced in this country.
- Presentation
CBO’s Assessment of the Economic Outlook
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, at the Seminar on Forecasting at George Washington University.